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The Tote Board
From
WagerWeb Contributing Writer
by Greg Melikov
How many times have you
heard:
"That long shot just dropped from 15-1. Somebody must have bet a
bundle on him."
"That horse should be lower than 5-1."
"There's no action on my pick at all."
Those are some observations I've heard watching the tote board
trackside over the years. When the board lights up, you should pay
attention. And since it's
often said "money talks," listen, because the board has loads to say
that can be beneficial to your handicapping.
Early money wagered supposedly is smart money. If a barn truly likes
its horse's chances, it traditionally gets its money down faster
than you can say "odds
on."
How strongly a first-time starter is bet often reflects the barn's
opinion because the public has little to go on except for workouts,
pedigree and the
connections.
So when a horse receives solid backing for no apparent reason, a
wager might be worth an investment, but you make the call.
Remember when the numbers on a favorite drop below 8-5 or so, odds
on other contenders should rise. If those odds remain steady on the
second and third
choices, more often than not that means smart money is going down.
One betting angle: When a contender that lost previously steps up in
class and the odds are lower than that last outing, the horse may be
worth a wager.
While logic says the odds should be higher, the contender may have
needed that race. The more prolific the trainer, the better the
chances to win.
Here are some tips from several experts on what to do when checking
out the tote board:
Write down opening odds and watch for dips from 15-1 to 8-1 or so ?
that's as significant as 9-2 down to 2-1. If consistent horses
coming off a layoff or
following a bad race get some action, pay attention.
If a thoroughbred doesn't look as good as the odds that are lower
than expected given the class, the horse still might be worth using
in exotics.
First-time starters bet down to odds-on favorites at major tracks
frequently make decent singles in Pick 3s, 4s and 6s.
Watching pools for the next race when they first flash on the board
after the previous contest is important. Then compare horses that
get the most action
with those getting the most action right before post time. Horses
getting heavy play both times are likely to hit the board.
Pay more attention to fluctuations of odds in filly and mare races.
They aren't as consistent as males and often perform poorly as they
go through female
cycles. Early action often reflects confidence that they run up
according to their capabilities. |